The Tragedy of the Commons Rules the Sahel

The next if not current Islamist insurgency has deep, tangled, and challenging roots to cut off.

Here is a StoryMap and Forecast I wrote for my class in my Master’s of Anticipatory Intelligence:

“If the next three years (2025–2028) prove to be the successively hottest years on record and total arable farmland in the Sahel region of Africa were reduced by 15%, what could be the most significant regional ramifications for human security?”.

What is the Sahel?

The Sahel is a region of profound human security needs, where the interplay of environmental, socio-economic, and geopolitical factors creates a complex landscape of challenges and opportunities for intervention. To address these issues effectively, it is essential to clarify the scope and scale of the Sahel and define the human security framework guiding this analysis. The scope of the Sahel varies depending on the lens through which it is viewed: The political Sahel, as defined by the UN, includes Senegal, Gambia, Mauritania, Guinea, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Cameroon, and Nigeria.2